Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
